A Bayesian method for detecting stellar flares

We present a Bayesian-odds-ratio-based algorithm for detecting stellar flares in light curve data. We assume flares are described by a model in which there is a rapid rise with a half-Gaussian profile, followed by an exponential decay. Our signal model also contains a polynomial background model. This is required to fit underlying light curve variations that are expected in the data, which could otherwise partially mimic a flare. We characterise the false alarm probability and efficiency of this method and compare it with a simpler thresholding method based on that used in Walkowicz et al (2011). We find our method has a significant increase in detection efficiency for low signal-to-noise ratio (S/N) flares. For a conservative false alarm probability our method can detect 95% of flares with S/N less than ~20, as compared to S/N of ~25 for the simpler method. As an example we have applied our method to a selection of stars in Kepler Quarter 1 data. The method finds 687 flaring stars with a total of 1873 flares after vetos have been applied. For these flares we have characterised their durations and and signal-to-noise ratios.Comment: Accepted for MNRAS. The code used for the analysis can be found at https://github.com/BayesFlare/bayesflare/releases/tag/v1.0.

Neonatal weight loss in breast and formula-fed infants

We have observed an increase in the number of breast fed babies presenting with dehydration and/or failure to thrive because of lactation failure and non-recognition of feeding problems. Recent reports1,2 support this experience and recommend monitoring of the weight of infants through the neonatal period. However, these reports acknowledge uncertainty as to what actually constitutes normal neonatal weight loss. Maisels and colleagues published two studies which have been quoted as giving guidance on normal loss. Both studies were designed primarily to study factors that influence breast milk jaundice. The first3 reported a mean weight loss of about 6% in 100 unselected well babies during the first 3 days. The subsequent study4 reported a mean weight loss of 6.86% in 186 infants. The timescale over which babies were weighed was not clearly indicated, although it may have only been 2-3 days. The sample was neither population based nor randomly selected, being largely preselected because of the presence of more pronounced jaundice. The distribution of data points for early neonatal weight loss are likely to be skewed, yet both studies reported the results as mean (SD). Owing to the design and method of data presentation, these studies cannot reliably inform the debate as to what constitutes the norm. Marchini and colleagues published reports also designed primarily to study other issues. One5 indicated a mean early weight loss of 5.7%. Measurements were recorded over a three day period, and no indication is given of the skewness of the data. Another study6 reported a median weight loss of about 6% recorded over a four day period. At least one baby lost > 15% of his/her birth weight during this time, but there is no clear information as to the frequency with which more extreme degrees of weight loss are observed

Volatile hydrocarbons inhibit methanogenic crude oil degradation

Methanogenic degradation of crude oil in subsurface sediments occurs slowly, but without the need for exogenous electron acceptors, is sustained for long periods and has enormous economic and environmental consequences. Here we show that volatile hydrocarbons are inhibitory to methanogenic oil biodegradation by comparing degradation of an artificially weathered crude oil with volatile hydrocarbons removed, with the same oil that was not weathered. Volatile hydrocarbons (nC5-nC10, methylcyclohexane, benzene, toluene, and xylenes) were quantified in the headspace of microcosms. Aliphatic (n-alkanes nC12-nC34) and aromatic hydrocarbons (4-methylbiphenyl, 3-methylbiphenyl, 2-methylnaphthalene, 1-methylnaphthalene) were quantified in the total hydrocarbon fraction extracted from the microcosms. 16S rRNA genes from key microorganisms known to play an important role in methanogenic alkane degradation (Smithella and Methanomicrobiales) were quantified by quantitative PCR. Methane production from degradation of weathered oil in microcosms was rapid (1.1 ± 0.1 μmol CH4/g sediment/day) with stoichiometric yields consistent with degradation of heavier n-alkanes (nC12-nC34). For non-weathered oil, degradation rates in microcosms were significantly lower (0.4 ± 0.3 μmol CH4/g sediment/day). This indicated that volatile hydrocarbons present in the non-weathered oil inhibit, but do not completely halt, methanogenic alkane biodegradation. These findings are significant with respect to rates of biodegradation of crude oils with abundant volatile hydrocarbons in anoxic, sulphate-depleted subsurface environments, such as contaminated marine sediments which have been entrained below the sulfate-reduction zone, as well as crude oil biodegradation in petroleum reservoirs and contaminated aquifers

Constraining the orbits of sub-stellar companions imaged over short orbital arcs

Imaging a star's companion at multiple epochs over a short orbital arc provides only four of the six coordinates required for a unique orbital solution. Probability distributions of possible solutions are commonly generated by Monte Carlo (MCMC) analysis, but these are biased by priors and may not probe the full parameter space. We suggest alternative methods to characterise possible orbits, which compliment the MCMC technique. Firstly the allowed ranges of orbital elements are prior-independent, and we provide means to calculate these ranges without numerical analyses. Hence several interesting constraints (including whether a companion even can be bound, its minimum possible semi-major axis and its minimum eccentricity) may be quickly computed using our relations as soon as orbital motion is detected. We also suggest an alternative to posterior probability distributions as a means to present possible orbital elements, namely contour plots of elements as functions of line of sight coordinates. These plots are prior-independent, readily show degeneracies between elements and allow readers to extract orbital solutions themselves. This approach is particularly useful when there are other constraints on the geometry, for example if a companion's orbit is assumed to be aligned with a disc. As examples we apply our methods to several imaged sub-stellar companions including Fomalhaut b, and for the latter object we show how different origin hypotheses affect its possible orbital solutions. We also examine visual companions of A- and G-type main sequence stars in the Washington Double Star Catalogue, and show that $\gtrsim50$ per cent must be unbound.Comment: Accepted for publication in MNRA

Trends in Research, Productivity Growth and Competitiveness in Agriculture in New Zealand and Australia

Investment in R&D has long been regarded as an important source of productivity growth in New Zealand and Australian agriculture. Perhaps because research lags are long, current investment in R&D is monitored closely. In this paper trends in public investment in R&D and in productivity growth are reviewed. Investment in R&D has been flat in both countries although in recent years investment in New Zealand has increased. Nevertheless research intensity in Australia has been significantly higher than that in New Zealand. Productivity growth is also likely to have been higher. Econometric evidence about the sources of productivity growth is rarely clear. We develop some scenarios about the importance of domestic and foreign R&D and other sources of productivity growth and find that returns to investments in domestic research in both countries are likely to have been in the order of 15-20 percent.Productivity, research and development, research evaluation, Productivity Analysis, Research and Development/Tech Change/Emerging Technologies,

Development of a contra-rotating tidal current turbine and analysis of performance

A contra-rotating marine current turbine has a number of attractive features: nearzero reactive torque on the support structure, near-zero swirl in the wake, and high relative inter-rotor rotational speeds. Modified blade element modelling theory has been used to design and predict the characteristics of such a turbine, and a model turbine and test rig have been constructed. Tests in a towing tank demonstrated the feasibility of the concept. Power coefficients were high for such a small model and in excellent agreement with predictions, confirming the accuracy of the computational modelling procedures. Highfrequency blade loading data were obtained in the course of the experiments. These show the anticipated dynamic components for a contra-rotating machine. Flow visualization of the wake verified the lack of swirl behind the turbine. A larger machine is presently under construction for sea trials

Design and testing of a contra-rotating tidal current turbine

A contra-rotating marine current turbine has a number of attractive features: nearzero reactive torque on the support structure, near-zero swirl in the wake, and high relative inter-rotor rotational speeds. Modified blade element modelling theory has been used to design and predict the characteristics of such a turbine, and a model turbine and test rig have been constructed. Tests in a towing tank demonstrated the feasibility of the concept. Power coefficients were high for such a small model and in excellent agreement with predictions, confirming the accuracy of the computational modelling procedures. High-frequency blade loading data were obtained in the course of the experiments. These show the anticipated dynamic components for a contra-rotating machine. Flow visualization of the wake verified the lack of swirl behind the turbine. A larger machine is presently under construction for sea trials